I am going to jump off a bridge!!!

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“Recent poll states that 96.72% of Canadians want to jump off a bridge”

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Far too often, It happens, sitting down for supper the phone rings, and occasionally, you drop your knife and fork and answer it.

“Good Evening, this is Joe Bothersome calling from Interruptus Polling Group and would you mind responding to a question that we are surveying people in your area”... 

“Sure” your reply, looking at your Sheppard’s Pie cooling on your dinner table. 

Joe continues, “Thank you, we have only one question. If you were asked to jump of a bridge, would you?”... 

Your obvious response would be “Not a chance”.. End of survey and you head back to your room temperature meal.

Several days later, mid evening, as you scroll through your television channels, looking for something to break the boredom, again the phone rings. Aha... maybe someone to talk to, to socialize with, and to catch up on the local gossip.  

You are greeted with a pleasant friendly voice “Good Evening, my name is Mary Nicety-Nice; I hope that I have not interrupted you, but we are calling a few people in your neighbourhood with a quick question, do you have time to answer?”  

Keen to respond to this pleasant person, you agree to chat. Mary explains “We are wondering if you were fortunate enough to be on vacation in Cuba, and along with the many beautiful places you visit, you have the opportunity to swim with the dolphins in the clear warm ocean, would you enjoy that?” 

Excited at the premise, your respond “Damn right I would!!”. 

Mary continues, “so you would have no problem stepping off a small walking bridge into the water to join the dolphins?”.  

Your response is an obvious one. “Of course not”.  Unfortunately your pleasant banter with Mary is over and you return back to your channel surfing.

Next morning you read the headlines in the paper. “Recent poll states that 96.72% of Canadians want to jump off a bridge”

I know that this is an exaggerated example, but this is reality as it relates to public opinion polls. Pollsters are obviously much shrewder in the manner they design and deliver polls. But our newspapers are full of results that are almost certainly skewed to present certain point of view. With a little research, it is interesting to understand who has commissioned the poll. And more interesting yet, to look at the specific methods and order of questions being asked.

A simple question alone (the core question within the survey), can lead to a specific response, but also more discreetly, when the primary question is placed within the series of questions. Preliminary questions can soften you up and poise you to respond in a particular favour. Even the method of delivering the poll can falsely represent what the true outcome would be. I leave you to consider, if the time of day, a friendly voice, an abrupt pollster, a written questionnaire, or even an automated “select a number on your phone keypad” would change your responses to questions. The anonymity of a written or automated survey may create a heightened sense of anonymity, verses, having to respond to a friendly chatty pollster.

Why does this matter? We are constantly faced with very complicated social and political issues, and these issues, are frequently provided with public opinion polls as supporting arguments, or combating this issues. We don’t always take the time to personally research and study all of the aspects of these issues, so it is human nature to follow the mob. If 80% of my fellow community members agree with a policy.. it is easier to go with the flow and support it as well.

But blindly following the results of polls may also have you standing at the edge of a bridge, and it is a long, long way down to the water below – and no friendly dolphins to swim with.

Information Highway - a single lane country road

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"...I will leave you to consider what less socially acceptable or even criminal deviancies that can be re-enforced..."

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Counterintuitive - not sure why I enjoy any opportunity to dig into life’s situations that seem to defy logic.  If you have had opportunity to brows my other articles in my blog you may note that there is an underlining theme of facing reality versus perception.

If one were to reflect on life before access to the vastness of the World Wide Web, we were influenced and developed our beliefs and were influenced by our social and family circles, and the more conservative television entertainment and news reporting. It would seem logical that in the “olden days” with such narrow influence of thoughts, we might find ourselves narrow minded, and to the extreme, radical in beliefs.

But, with the expanse of the Information Highway (there is an antiquated phrase)... all of these narrow minded, bias beliefs are gone right? A few Google searches and you are instantly educated on all sides of an area of interest. So we are all now more accepting and tolerant as we can easily see the other side of any story.  The high speed access to millions of opinions means we no long are handcuffed to local interest groups, and community radicals. We are all better people, as we can sit comfortable and read, watch, and listen to a broad diversity of logic and understanding.

NOPE, WRONG, NADA...

There is a nifty little concept that has long existed, that is only exacerbated by the presence of the web. Confirmation Bias. This condition, in the simplest of terms, refers to the natural tendency of people to seek out information that confirms their beliefs, making them stronger, while at the same time, minimizing or discarding facts that are counter to their beliefs. This understanding of what makes us tick, has been around as long as we have.. but pre internet, finding resources to deepen our beliefs was more difficult so the bias was less prevalent.  I would speculate that the bias was more along the lines of religion, ethnicity, and male female equality. I expect these Biases are easily found and nourished within specific communities and relatively small geographies.

Now we open the flood gates of very specific bias or radical behaviour, if one were to Google the harmless issue “Anti-Fracking” in .34 seconds about 3,550,000 results resulting sites are returned for your perusal. This instant confirmation that in such numbers in the world, appears to validate ones belief, and only makes the belief much more entrenched. I will leave you to consider what less socially acceptable or even criminal deviancies that can be re-enforced in a person with these tendencies. Years ago, deviant behaviour and acceptance was less readily available, confirmation that these might be limited to a handful of people. Now, it would appear, there are thousands, even millions that support these behaviours... therefore.. it must be ok, and extremists continue to grow more extreme with this Confirmation Bias.

It seems logical to think that now we have so much information literally at our fingertips, we are all growing smarter and more acceptant and less bias to others opinions, whereas the reality, all of this information is only making us all that much more narrow minded... counterintuitive I say!