tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6166857565524883362.post1805082925609893948..comments2023-08-20T07:24:15.851-03:00Comments on The Soapbox - THE Place to Bitch!!: Beware, There are a lot of butterflies flapping their wings in Africa!!Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6166857565524883362.post-92594702608819752011-12-18T10:31:52.594-04:002011-12-18T10:31:52.594-04:00Andrew, I am not sure I agree... S/D analysis appl...Andrew, I am not sure I agree... S/D analysis applies quiet nicely in a Micro AND Macro environment. My examples are oversimplified for brevity, my point is exactly your issue.. when we add politics and policy to this model. THEY are the outside influence that screws up the natural state of things. My point exactly that they should stay the hell away from tinkering. I will water down this statement admitting that that is not always possible as there are other factors to our existence than economics.. but they tinker FAR to often unnecessarily.<br />Re: the future... Not many policies, decisions, business models do a perfect job foreseeing the future.. but applying the S/D analysis is much better than Tarot cardsDa Moderatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09901694131078120563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6166857565524883362.post-14393835856027959582011-12-17T19:03:32.966-04:002011-12-17T19:03:32.966-04:00That's a cute and simplified analysis but I...That's a cute and simplified analysis but I'm not sure it really captures reality. The simplified theory of supply and demand falls apart once you introduce people and politics to the equation. <br /><br />It also does a poor job of working with anything other than current supply and current demand. That's why we are screwing our future selves in all kinds of ways (oil, environment, fish, etc,).Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11990020844200667933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6166857565524883362.post-40268882105379373782011-12-17T11:53:03.137-04:002011-12-17T11:53:03.137-04:00Tying your expected exam result into Qauntum Theor...Tying your expected exam result into Qauntum Theory... niiiiceee :)Da Moderatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09901694131078120563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6166857565524883362.post-53098961490592847452011-12-17T11:33:41.732-04:002011-12-17T11:33:41.732-04:00There's another very interesting concept in st...There's another very interesting concept in statistics that you've touched on -- the Chaos Theory -- which is probability versus severity. This graph http://itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/pmc/section5/gifs/normal.gif is incredibly important to economics, science, engineering and many many other fields. If you imagine that the positive part of the horizontal axis is good, the negative part is bad and the vertical axis is severity, it can be scaled and skewed to predict the likelihood of almost anything happening. For example, I have a huge exam today that I should be studying for. I may do very well, I may do very poorly, but I will probably do somewhere in the neighbourhood of "okay," which I would be happy with :).GregEsauhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02681198668893581730noreply@blogger.com